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Economy in Brief

U.S. Payrolls Rose in ADP Survey, Despite Hurricane Sandy
by Tom Moeller  December 5, 2012

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payroll survey indicated that private sector payrolls rose 118,000 last month after a little-revised 157,000 gain, although September's gain was revised lower. The latest increase was short of the expected 139,000 rise, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce November payroll employment on Friday. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between these monthly ADP and the BLS figures.

The survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities reported before. Extensive information on the methodology is given on the ADP website, here

Service-producing payrolls paced the November increase with a 114,000 (1.8% y/y) rise. Goods-producing sector payrolls are estimated to have risen 4,000 (0.9% y/y), including a 16,000 (+0.3% y/y) decrease in manufacturing. To the upside, construction payrolls rose 23,000 (1.8% y/y). Amongst small businesses, payrolls rose 19,000 (1.4% y/y). Medium sized firms saw a 33,000 (1.4% y/y) rise and large-size companies posted a 66,000 (2.4% y/y) gain.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures in the new series date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Nov Oct Sep Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 118 157 124 1.6% 1.7% -0.8% -5.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 19 52 44 1.4 1.0 -0.8 -3.2
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 33 25 33 1.4 2.0 -0.6 -6.6
 Large Payroll (>500) 66 81 46 2.4 2.7 -1.1 -6.9
Goods-Producing 4 8 -5 0.9 1.6 -4.3 -13.0
 Manufacturing -16 -11 -14 0.3 1.6 -2.7 -11.5
Service-Producing 114 149 129 1.8 1.8 -0.1 -3.5
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