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Economy in Brief

ISM-Chicago Business Activity Improves
by Tom Moeller  November 30, 2012

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago reported that its Business Barometer improved this month to 50.4, its highest level in three months. Haver Analytics constructs a seasonally adjusted figure comparable to the ISM Composite index and it rose to 51.9, making up its October decline. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the adjusted Chicago index and the ISM Mfg. Composite index.

Improvement in the components during November centered on the employment, production, order backlogs and deliveries indexes. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.

Pricing power also improved m/m to its highest level since August of last year. During the last ten years there has been a 39% correlation between the prices paid index and three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI.

The survey panel consists of 200 manufacturing purchasing professionals in the Chicago area. ISM Chicago is copyrighted by Deutsche Borse AG and the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago. The figures from the survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA

 

Chicago ISM (Diff. Index, 50=No Chg.) Nov Oct Sep Nov'11 2011 2010 2009
ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions 51.9 50.5 51.6 60.0 61.4 59.0 41.7
Business Barometer 50.4 49.9 49.7 62.5 62.8 61.3 43.4
  New Orders 45.3 50.6 47.4 68.5 65.5 63.5 45.3
  Production 54.7 51.8 55.4 66.5 66.7 65.0 45.0
  Order Backlogs 49.6 44.3 41.6 55.6 55.6 54.5 35.9
  Deliveries 57.3 50.4 52.1 56.4 60.0 61.0 50.1
  Inventories 47.1 49.6 51.1 54.3 55.2 50.5 33.4
  Employment 55.2 50.3 52.0 58.6 59.5 55.2 34.6
  Prices Paid 70.1 59.3 63.2 61.8 72.5 65.3 41.5
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