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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2012
Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29th and thus reduced three days worth of income & outlays
along the Eastern Seaboard. Personal income was unchanged last month (3.1% y/y) following an unrevised
0.4% September increase. A 0.2% gain was expected. Wages & salaries fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) but that decline
was offset by a 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) jump in interest income and a 0.6% (7.8% y/y) gain in dividend income. Transfer
payments fell 0.3% (+3.1% y/y). After tax income also was unchanged (3.0% y/y). In constant dollars, however,
disposable income slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y).
The dollar value of personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) after an unrevised 0.8% September jump. A 0.1% increase had been expected. Adjusted for price inflation, spending fell 0.3% (+1.3% y/y). Much of that decline reflected a 4.4% (3.1% y/y) decline in spending of motor vehicles reversing the September jump. Spending of home furnishings also fell 0.8% (+4.2% y/y) and reversed the earlier rise while clothing spending fell 1.2% (+1.0% y/y) but that mostly negated three months of increase. Real services spending slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y).
The unchanged income level set against the decline in spending raised the personal savings rate minimally to 3.4%, still nearly its lowest since November of last year.
The PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.7% y/y). The increase reflected 0.2% increases in both services (2.0% y/y) and nondurables (2.8% y/y) prices. The latter gain also reflected a 0.4% (+8.7% y/y) drop in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices fell another 0.2% (-1.8% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index again ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y).
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
Wages & Salaries | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
Personal Saving Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.6 (Oct'11) |
14.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Real Disposable Income | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
-0.3 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |