Recent Updates

  • US: IP & Capacity Utilization, Advance Retail Sales (Nov)
  • Canada: National Balance Sheet & Flow of Funds (Q3)
  • Romania: Labor Productivity, IP Detail (Oct)
  • Ireland: Planning Permissions (Q3)
  • Spain: Lending to Credit Institutions (Nov), Debt by Region (Oct), Central Bank Balance Sheet (Nov-Prelim)
  • Israel: Residential Construction Inputs Price Index (Nov)
  • Iceland: Unemployment (Nov)
  • Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Dec)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Income & Outlays Are Reduced by Sandy
by Tom Moeller  November 30, 2012

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29th and thus reduced three days worth of income & outlays along the Eastern Seaboard. Personal income was unchanged last month (3.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% September increase. A 0.2% gain was expected. Wages & salaries fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) but that decline was offset by a 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) jump in interest income and a 0.6% (7.8% y/y) gain in dividend income. Transfer payments fell 0.3% (+3.1% y/y). After tax income also was unchanged (3.0% y/y). In constant dollars, however, disposable income slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y). 

The dollar value of personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) after an unrevised 0.8% September jump. A 0.1% increase had been expected. Adjusted for price inflation, spending fell 0.3% (+1.3% y/y). Much of that decline reflected a 4.4% (3.1% y/y) decline in spending of motor vehicles reversing the September jump. Spending of home furnishings also fell 0.8% (+4.2% y/y) and reversed the earlier rise while clothing spending fell 1.2% (+1.0% y/y) but that mostly negated three months of increase. Real services spending slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y).

The unchanged income level set against the decline in spending raised the personal savings rate minimally to 3.4%, still nearly its lowest since November of last year.

The PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.7% y/y). The increase reflected 0.2% increases in both services (2.0% y/y) and nondurables (2.8% y/y) prices. The latter gain also reflected a 0.4% (+8.7% y/y) drop in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices fell another 0.2% (-1.8% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index again ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y).

 The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

 

Personal Income & Outlays (%) Oct Sep Aug Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Personal Income 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.1 5.1 3.8 -4.8
  Wages & Salaries -0.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 4.0 2.1 -4.3
Disposable Personal Income 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.0 3.8 3.8 -2.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures -0.2 0.8 0.3 3.1 5.0 3.8 -1.9
Personal Saving Rate 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.6
(Oct'11)
14.2 5.1 4.7
PCE Chain Price Index 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.9 0.1
  Less Food & Energy 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4
Real Disposable Income -0.1 0.0 -0.3 1.2 1.3 1.8 -2.8
Real Personal Consumption
Expenditures
-0.3 0.4 -0.0 1.3 2.5 1.8 -1.9
close
large image