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Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Flat
by Tom Moeller  November 27, 2012

Durable goods orders were unchanged (2.3% y/y) last month after a 9.2% recovery during September. The figure contrasted with Consensus expectations for a 1.0% decline. Fewer orders for transportation equipment accounted for much of the weakness with a 3.1% (+14.4% y/y) decline. Orders for nondefense aircraft were off 5.8% (+52.7% y/y) while orders for defense aircraft fell 4.3% (+31.6% y/y). Also lower were motor vehicle & parts orders. The 1.6% (+4.9% y/y) drop was the third consecutive month of sharp decline. Less the transportation sector altogether, orders for durables rose 1.5% (-2.3% y/y) following  a 1.7% September increase; however, there were caveats.

The 4.1% jump in electrical equipment and appliance orders just made up for the September drop and left them down 3.2% y/y. Machinery orders increased 2.9% but remained 9.0% lower versus last year. Also to the upside were orders for computers and electronic products. However, the 0.9% (-8.4% y/y) rise followed five consecutive months of decline. Primary metals exhibited a second month of strength with a 1.7% (3.4% y/y) rise. Nondefense capital goods orders increased 0.8% (0.1% y/y) while excluding aircraft orders gained 1.7% (-8.1% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6% (+3.3% y/y) and excluding transportation shipments slipped 0.3% (+2.3% y/y). Unfilled orders gained 0.2% (4.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.4% (5.4% y/y).

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database. 

 

Durable Goods NAICS Classification Oct Sep Aug Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
New Orders 0.0 9.2 -13.1 2.3 9.8 27.1 -30.0
  Transportation -3.1 29.7 -33.7 14.4 12.8 57.4 -42.0
Total Excluding Transportation 1.5 1.7 -2.0 -2.3 8.6 18.0 -25.4
  Nondefense Capital Goods 0.8 23.0 -23.9 0.1 13.2 36.3 -36.9
    Excluding Aircraft 1.7 -0.4 0.3 -8.1 10.3 17.1 -24.5
Shipments -0.6 0.5 -2.9 3.3 9.6 11.4 -21.0
Inventories 0.4 0.2 0.6 5.4 10.3 9.5 -10.2
Unfilled Orders 0.2 0.1 -1.7 4.4 10.3 9.6 -19.5
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