Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
- Croatia: Retail Trade (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 26, 2012
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index
(CFNAI) for October dropped sharply to -0.56 from an unrevised 0.00 during
September. The three-month moving average also fell to -0.56, its lowest
since October 2009. During the last ten years, there has been an 81%
correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Deterioration in the CFNAI reflected declines in all four component series, but it was most notable in the Production & Income number. It dropped to -0.45 and gave back most of its September improvement. The Sales, Inventories & Orders series also declined sharply m/m but remained barely positive. In addition, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours series fell hard but it too remained positive. The Personal Consumption & Housing series dipped and remained negative. In this series, however, the recent trend has been improving while the others have moved sideways or deteriorated. The Chicago Fed reported that during October, 31 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index while 54 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | -0.56 | 0.00 | -1.13 | 0.07 | 0.03 | -0.01 | -1.63 |
3-Month Moving Average | -0.56 | -0.36 | -0.52 | -0.17 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.19 | -0.17 | -0.23 | -0.26 | -0.31 | -0.30 | -0.35 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.03 | -0.82 |
Production & Income | -0.45 | -0.06 | -0.62 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.29 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | 0.10 | -0.27 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.09 | -0.16 |