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by Tom Moeller November 20, 2012
The data on U.S. chain store sales just don't show upward momentum entering the holiday season. Sales slipped 0.3% last week and left the November average 3.5% below last July. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has increased.
General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Prospects for sales improvement appear limited. The leading indicator of purchases at chain stores fell 0.6 w/w and that left the 4.4% y/y change below the early March peak of 5.3%. The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four series: (1) The MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home purchase, (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying conditions, (3) new filings for jobless benefits, and (4) the 30-year government bond yield.
The chain store sales data are in Haver's SURVEYW.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/17/12 | 11/10/12 | 11/03/12 | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 530.6 | 532.2 | 528.4 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| W/W % | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
