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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens
by Tom Moeller  November 13, 2012

The Federal Government budget deficit deepened to $120.0B during October of FY13 versus $98.5B last fiscal year. The deeper deficit was paced by a 16.4% y/y increase in outlays which was greater than the 13.0% y/y rise in revenues. Expectations were for a deficit of $115B.

The 16.4% increase in outlays was due to a 79.9% y/y rise in Medicare payments accompanied by a 23.6% y/y gain in income security outlays. Also strong was the 13.5% y/y rise in health outlays, although these spending increases were biased higher by a shift in payments' timing last year.

Net revenues rose a strong 13.0% powered by a 17.6% gain in individual income taxes, but held back by a one-third drop in corporate tax payments. Social insurance payments rose a steady 2.7%. Revenues also were biased higher by the timing of last fiscal year.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

US Government Finance Oct FY'12 FY'11 FY'10 FY'09
Budget Balance -- $-120.0B $-1,089B $-1,298.7B $-1,294.2B $-1,415.7B
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 7.0 8.6 8.0 9.5
% of Total
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 13.0% 6.4% 6.5% 2.7% -16.6%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 17.6 3.7 21.5 -1.8 -20.1
  Corporate Income Taxes 8 -34.3 33.8 -5.4 38.5 -54.6
  Social Insurance Taxes 36 2.7 3.2 -5.3 -2.9 -1.0
  Excise Taxes 3 36.8 9.2 8.2 7.1 -7.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 16.4 -1.7 4.1 -1.8 18.2
  Nat'l Defense 20 7.5 -3.6 1.7 4.6 7.6
  Health 10 13.5 -7.0 1.0 10.4 19.1
  Medicare 20 79.9 -2.8 7.5 5.0 10.1
  Income Security 17 23.6 -9.2 -4.1 16.7 24.9
  Social Security 20 6.2 5.8 3.4 3.5 10.7
  Veterans Benefits 4 89.1 -2.0 17.3 13.6 12.7
  Interest 6 -0.2 -2.1 15.8 2.9 -24.6
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