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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Surges Again
by Tom Moeller  November 9, 2012

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-November jumped to 84.9 (33.3% y/y) from an unrevised 82.6 in October. The latest figure was the highest since July 2007 and beat expectations for 83.0. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The rise in this month's overall consumer sentiment reading was led by the rise in the current economic conditions index to 91.3 (18.0% y/y) while the expected conditions reading increased to 80.8 (47.2% y/y).

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The forecast figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

Detecting early signs of financial instability from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.

University of Michigan
(Q1'66 = 100)
Mid-Nov Oct Sept Nov'11 2011 2010 2009
Consumer Sentiment 84.9 82.6 78.3 63.7 67.3 71.8 66.3
 Current Economic Conditions 91.3 88.1 85.7 77.4 79.1 80.9 69.6
 Consumer Expectations 80.8 79.0 73.5 54.9 59.8 66.0 64.1
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