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by Tom Moeller October 23, 2012
Perhaps it's all seasonal, but there's been pressure on consumer spending. Since their peak in mid-July, chain store sales have fallen 5.0%, leaving the y/y gain at 2.9%. Chain store sales fell 0.7% last week and the October average is 0.6% below September. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has increased.
General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of purchases at chain stores slipped 0.2% (3.3% y/y). The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four series: (1) The MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home purchase, (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying conditions, (3) new filings for jobless benefits, and (4) the 30-year government bond yield.
The chain store sales data are in Haver's SURVEYW.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/20/12 | 10/13/12 | 10/06/12 | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 527.0 | 530.8 | 530.7 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| W/W % | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
