Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Robert Brusca October 17, 2012
UK unemployment measures have begun to bend lower. The drop in the number of claimants in Sept was unexpected. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level in more than a year as the labor market absorbed record number of workers during the Olympics. The unemployment rate, under the definition of the International labor Organization, declined to 7.9 percent in the June-August period from 8.1 percent during March-May.
The UK economy has not been giving off many signs of improving behavior so the improved labor market metrics were a bit of a surprise.
Because of the Olympics and some earlier distortions from the Queen’s Jubilee it is unclear how accurate a reading we are getting of the real UK economy. Just today BOE Deputy Governor Tucker was warning banks on their leverage and cautioning that the ‘worst may still lie head’ for them.
The UK is plugged into trading with Europe and that still seems every much laden with risk. But its North America trade should fare better as the US and Canadian economies are doing much better than Europe.
Still the UK continues to be enmeshed in difficult times and is very entangled in European events. Even though the claimant rate and the overall unemployment rates each have dipped, there is no assurance that such a signal is real.
UK Claimant Count | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 12 | Aug 12 | Jul 12 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-Mo | |
Level in Month | Average in Period | |||||
U-Rate: Claimants | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Unemployment % | -- | -- | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 |
Change in MO | Change over Period | |||||
Change on 000s | -4.0 | -14.2 | -13.6 | -31.8 | -36.7 | -21.8 |
u-rate averages are for most recent available | ||||||
UK (Great Britain) Earnings | ||||||
All Seas. Adj. | Aug 12 | Jul 12 | Jun 12 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-Mo |
Avg Earnings: All | Level in Month | Average in Period | ||||
All; Pounds | 473.0 | 471.0 | 471.0 | 470.3 | 467.0 | 465.5 |
In MFG | 545.0 | 544.0 | 545.0 | 543.3 | 538.5 | 536.1 |
Change in % | %Change in MO | % Change over period: AR | ||||
All | 1.7% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
In MFG | 0.7% | -0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
Real Earnings % | %Change in MO | % Change over period: AR | ||||
ALL | 0.5% | -2.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 2.8% | -0.4% |