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Economy in Brief

China's Exports Rise in September, but Exporters Wary
by Louise Curley  October 16, 2012

China's e merchandise trade exports rose 3.4% in September from 168.6 Bil US$ in August to 174.3 Bil US$ and were 10.2% above September, 2011.  The good news was dampened  by an article on the front page of today's Financial Times, headed "Chinese exporters belie upbeat data".  Exporters point to the sagging demand for Chinese products in the western countries and rising wages and raw material prices in China.  The trend in year over year percent changes in exports, as shown in the first chart, gives credence to the exporters' complaints.  The year over year percent changes in exports have clearly shown a downward trend.

The trend in China's merchandise exports to the European Union and the U. S. also confirm the exporters' complaint of sagging demand in the western countries. The year to year changes in these exports are shown in the second chart.  The year over year changes in China's exports to the European Union have been negative for most of this year and have become increasingly negative since June.  Although China's year to year change in exports to the U. S. have not been negative, the trend in the year to year changes has been downward. 

The levels of exports, imports and balances are shown in the third chart.


CHINA TRADE Sep'12 Aug'12 Sep'11 M/M % Y/Y % 2011 2010 2009
Exports (Bil US$) 174.3 168.6 157.5 3.39 10.2 1890.0 1573.5 1197.0
Imports (Bil US$) 148.7 146.1 144.1 1.80 3.19 1741.9 1394.8 1001.3
Balance (Bil US$) 25.6 22.5 13.4 3.0* 12.2** 148.1 178.7 195.6
Sep'12 Aug'12 Jul'12 Jun'12 May'12 Apr'12 Mar'12 Feb'12
Exports to U.S. (Y/Y) 5.49 2.96 0.56 10.60 22.99 10.01 14.03 22.59
Exports to EU (Y/Y) -10.70 -12.68 -16.24 -1.12 3.43 -2.38 -3.11 2.25
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