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Economy in Brief
Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
While the IMF has just lifted its outlook for growth in 2018, Japan is logging weaker and weaker export and import growth as the year progresses...
U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens; Factory Output Ticks Higher
The Fed reported that industrial production increased 0.5% (4.3% y/y) during March...
U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover
Total housing starts in March increased 1.9% to 1.319 million units (SAAR)...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
Retail gasoline prices rebounded to $2.75 per gallon last week (22.8% y/y)...
ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
Current conditions indexes in the ZEW framework usually do not change by much month-to-month...
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2012
During August, business inventories rose 0.6% following a 0.8% July rise. Though the y/y trend gain fell, these latest gains were elevated versus the Q2 average of 0.2%. Behind the quicker increase was a 0.9% rise in merchant wholesalers inventories driven by a 9.4% surge (-2.7% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Less petroleum, wholesale inventories ticked up 0.1% (5.8% y/y) in August. Factory inventories rose a steady 0.6% (3.5% y/y). Inventories at the retail level also rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y). That was led by a 1.5% jump in autos (20.3% y/y) after a 2.7% July increase. Nonauto retail inventory accumulation was negligible.
Business sales increased 0.5% after a 0.9% July rise. Therefore, the inventory-to-sales ratio remained a constant 1.28. Retail sales surged 1.3% (4.9% y/y) as auto sales jumped. Excluding autos, sales increased 1.1% (4.6% y/y). As a result, the nonauto retail I/S ratio remained roughly stable at 1.20. Sales of merchant wholesalers increased 0.9% (2.1% y/y) with the rise in oil prices. That was enough to leave the I/S ratio roughly constant at 1.20. Factory shipments fell 0.3% pushing the I/S ratio up slightly to 1.28.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Business Inventories(%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 8.3 | -9.4 |
Retail | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 | -10.1 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | -4.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -11.8 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 9.4 | 8.8 | -6.8 |
Business Sales (%) | |||||||
Total | 0.5 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 11.3 | 9.7 | -14.8 |
Retail | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | -7.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 4.7 | -6.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.9 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | -16.2 |
Manufacturing | -0.3 | 1.9 | -1.2 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 11.2 | -18.8 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.46 |
Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.31 |
Manufacturing | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.39 |