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Economy in Brief

Consumer Sentiment Jumps To Highest Level Since 2007
by Tom Moeller  October 12, 2012

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-October jumped to 83.1 from an unrevised 78.3 in September. The latest number was the highest since September 2007 and easily surpassed expectations for 77.7. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The rise in this month's overall consumer sentiment reading reflected a six point jump in the consumer expectations figure to 79.5, its highest since 2007. The current conditions reading increased nearly three points to 88.6.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The forecast figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan
(Q1'66 = 100)
Mid-Oct Sept Aug Oct'11 2011 2010 2009
Consumer Sentiment 83.1 78.3 74.3 60.8 67.3 71.8 66.3
 Current Economic Conditions 88.6 85.7 88.7 74.9 79.1 80.9 69.6
 Consumer Expectations 79.5 73.5 65.1 51.7 59.8 66.0 64.1
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