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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 10, 2012
The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications slipped 1.2% last week (+35.5% y/y) led by a 2.0% decline (+41.8% y/y) in applications to refinance an existing loan. Home purchase applications gained 2.4% last week (13.3% y/y) with the recent recovery in home sales. Applications for fixed interest rate loans rose 38.6% y/y as lower mortgage rates were locked in. Conversely, adjustable rate loan applications fell 13.1% y/y.
The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages held steady last week at 2.98% but remained down compared to 3.47% in January. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate ticked up to 3.67% but the effective rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan declined to 3.85%. Though it's narrowed slightly of late, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage was stable at 2.73% and was down from its 3.93% high during February of last year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 10/05/12 | 09/28/12 | 09/21/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 1,008.1 | 1,020.4 | 875.1 | 35.5 | 572.3 | 659.3 | 736.4 |
Purchase | 198.9 | 194.2 | 187.0 | 12.3 | 182.6 | 199.8 | 263.5 |
Refinancing | 5,772.6 | 5,888.0 | 4,921.4 | 41.8 | 2,858.4 | 3,348.1 | 3,509.2 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 2.98 | 2.97 | 3.08 | 3.71 (10/11) |
3.97 | 4.39 | 4.85 |