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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller October 9, 2012
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its September Index of Small Business Optimism slipped to 92.8 from 92.9 in August. The Q3 average of 92.3 was its lowest this year. Recent weakness was led by fewer firms reporting higher real earnings this quarter over last. Also, fewer firms were planning to increase employment and fewer were going to raise capital expenditures in 3-6 months. Offsetting these declines was an increase in the percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve and more expecting credit conditions to ease.
The percentage of firms reporting that credit was harder to get fell to 6%, down sharply from the early-2009 high of 16%. The percentage planning to raise worker compensation held at 10%, up from the recession low of 0%. The percentage of firms lifting prices held at a stable 6% while an improved 19% were planning to raise prices.
The most important problems faced by small business were government requirements (a greatly increased 21%), poor sales (a greatly lessened 21%), taxes (21%), inflation (7%), insurance cost & availability (7%), competition from large businesses (7%), quality of labor (6%), cost of labor (3%) and financial & interest rates (2%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Federation of Independent Business | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '11 |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 92.8 | 92.9 | 91.2 | 88.9 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 86.7 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 1 | 1 | -4 | -6 | 3 | 1 | -11 |
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | 2 | -2 | -8 | -22 | -9 | -1 | -0 |
Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 17 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicant For Job Openings (Net %) | 41 | 37 | 38 | 34 | 32 | 27 | -- |
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | -12 | -20 |