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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Due To Heartened Expectations
by Tom Moeller  September 28, 2012

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for September rose to 78.3 from an unrevised 74.3 in August. The figure was down, however, from the mid-September reading of 79.2. The latest number was slightly short of expectations for 78.8. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The rise in this month's overall consumer sentiment reading owed to a rise in the consumer expectations figure to 73.5, its highest since May. Countering the gain was a decline in the current conditions reading to 85.7.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan
(Q1'66 = 100)
Sept Aug Jul Sep'11 2011 2010 2009
Consumer Sentiment 78.3 74.3 72.3 59.5 67.3 71.8 66.3
 Current Economic Conditions 85.7 88.7 82.7 75.2 79.1 80.9 69.6
 Consumer Expectations 73.5 65.1 65.6 49.4 59.8 66.0 64.1
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