Recent Updates
- Germany: **Wholesale Trade Prices rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100**
- US: S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes (Jul); FHFA House Price Indexes (Jul); Consumer Confidence (Sep)
- US: FRB Philadelphia Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Sep); FRB Richmond Mfg & Service Sector Surveys (Sep); Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (Sep)
- US: Consumer Confidence Detail (Sep)
- Canada Regional: Quebec Economic Accounts (Q2), Quebec GDP by Industry (Jun)
- Spain: International Trade (Jul), PPI (Aug), BOP (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Rise Moderates
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index for house purchases increased 0.2% in July (6.4% y/y)...
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Index Improves
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level increased to 46.8 in September...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain High; Crude Oil Costs Strengthen
Gasoline prices, at $2.84 per gallon last week (10.1% y/y), were unchanged from the prior week...
Texas Factory Sector Index Retreats; Expectations Are Mixed
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index fell to 28.1 in September...
German IFO Index Marks Time
The German IFO Institute index has gone sideways in September...
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2012
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal
income fell 0.3% during August. On a y/y basis, growth held up at 1.8%
but three-month growth was slightly negative for the first time since
November. The monthly decline reflected a steady 0.1% gain in nominal
terms. That rise equaled the 0.1% uptick in total personal income which
followed a downwardly revised 0.1% July gain, originally set at
0.3%. A 0.2% advance had been the consensus expectation. A 0.1% (3.7% y/y)
rise in wages followed a like uptick in July and three-month growth was a
diminished 2.4%. Proprietors income rose a firm 0.6% (4.1% y/y) but
interest income fell 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) along with transfer receipts, off
0.1% (+2.7% y/y)
Despite the decline in real income, inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditures ticked up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.4% July rise. However, showing moderation was three-month growth of 1.4% which was half of that six months ago. Nominal spending advanced 0.5% (3.6% y/y) during August. Also adjusted for inflation, spending on goods rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) last month lifted by strength in vehicle sales (10.6% y/y) and home furnishings & appliances (6.2% y/y). Nondurables spending rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) with strength in spending on apparel (3.6% y/y) but spending on services slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y).
Firm spending growth in the face of a diminished income gain reduced the personal savings rate to 3.7% last month, its lowest since April. However, these figures remain up from November's low of 3.2%.
The PCE chain price index advanced 0.4% (1.5% y/y). The monthly gain matched the strongest since June of 2009. Nondurables costs jumped 1.3% (1.7% y/y) with the rise in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices slipped 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) while services prices increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as it did in July.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 (Aug'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Real Disposable Income | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
