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Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) during October...
U.S. Import Prices Weaken As Petroleum Prices Fall; Export Prices Also Decline
Import prices fell 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.5% October rise...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surges Unexpectedly
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $204.9 billion budget deficit during November...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8...
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2012
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal
income fell 0.3% during August. On a y/y basis, growth held up at 1.8%
but three-month growth was slightly negative for the first time since
November. The monthly decline reflected a steady 0.1% gain in nominal
terms. That rise equaled the 0.1% uptick in total personal income which
followed a downwardly revised 0.1% July gain, originally set at
0.3%. A 0.2% advance had been the consensus expectation. A 0.1% (3.7% y/y)
rise in wages followed a like uptick in July and three-month growth was a
diminished 2.4%. Proprietors income rose a firm 0.6% (4.1% y/y) but
interest income fell 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) along with transfer receipts, off
0.1% (+2.7% y/y)
Despite the decline in real income, inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditures ticked up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.4% July rise. However, showing moderation was three-month growth of 1.4% which was half of that six months ago. Nominal spending advanced 0.5% (3.6% y/y) during August. Also adjusted for inflation, spending on goods rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) last month lifted by strength in vehicle sales (10.6% y/y) and home furnishings & appliances (6.2% y/y). Nondurables spending rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) with strength in spending on apparel (3.6% y/y) but spending on services slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y).
Firm spending growth in the face of a diminished income gain reduced the personal savings rate to 3.7% last month, its lowest since April. However, these figures remain up from November's low of 3.2%.
The PCE chain price index advanced 0.4% (1.5% y/y). The monthly gain matched the strongest since June of 2009. Nondurables costs jumped 1.3% (1.7% y/y) with the rise in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices slipped 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) while services prices increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as it did in July.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 (Aug'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Real Disposable Income | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
