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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
Retail gasoline prices slipped to $2.88 per gallon last week (+24.2% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June ...
Japan's Loses Its Trade Surplus
In May, Japan has logged its second trade deficit in 13 months and only its third in the last 28 months...
U.S. Industrial Production Slips Unexpectedly
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months...
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2012
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal
income fell 0.3% during August. On a y/y basis, growth held up at 1.8%
but three-month growth was slightly negative for the first time since
November. The monthly decline reflected a steady 0.1% gain in nominal
terms. That rise equaled the 0.1% uptick in total personal income which
followed a downwardly revised 0.1% July gain, originally set at
0.3%. A 0.2% advance had been the consensus expectation. A 0.1% (3.7% y/y)
rise in wages followed a like uptick in July and three-month growth was a
diminished 2.4%. Proprietors income rose a firm 0.6% (4.1% y/y) but
interest income fell 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) along with transfer receipts, off
0.1% (+2.7% y/y)
Despite the decline in real income, inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditures ticked up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.4% July rise. However, showing moderation was three-month growth of 1.4% which was half of that six months ago. Nominal spending advanced 0.5% (3.6% y/y) during August. Also adjusted for inflation, spending on goods rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) last month lifted by strength in vehicle sales (10.6% y/y) and home furnishings & appliances (6.2% y/y). Nondurables spending rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) with strength in spending on apparel (3.6% y/y) but spending on services slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y).
Firm spending growth in the face of a diminished income gain reduced the personal savings rate to 3.7% last month, its lowest since April. However, these figures remain up from November's low of 3.2%.
The PCE chain price index advanced 0.4% (1.5% y/y). The monthly gain matched the strongest since June of 2009. Nondurables costs jumped 1.3% (1.7% y/y) with the rise in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices slipped 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) while services prices increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y) as it did in July.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 (Aug'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Real Disposable Income | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
