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Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plummet With Cancelled Aircraft Bookings
by Tom Moeller  September 27, 2012

Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2% (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A 4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a roughly one-third drop paced by net cancellations of orders for nondefense aircraft. Orders for defense aircraft also were weak and posted an 8.1% (-28.3% y/y) decline. Less the transportation sector altogether, orders for durables fell 1.6% (-1.1% y/y).     

Weakness in other industries was led by machinery where orders fell 4.7% (-10.1% y/y), off for the sixth month this year. Orders for computers and electronic products industries also posted a 3.4% (-3.9% y/y) decline, off for the fifth month in the last six. A 3.8% rise (-3.2% y/y) in electrical equipment orders picked up some of the slack. Nondefense capital goods orders fell by roughly one quarter (-21.5% y/y) with the cancelled aircraft bookings. Excluding aircraft, orders increased 1.1% (-3.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.

Shipments of durable goods also were weak last month and posted a 3.0% drop (+4.4% y/y). Again, the transportation sector led with a 7.9% (+9.2% y/y) decline. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.9% (+2.5% y/y). Unfilled orders fell 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.6% (5.2% y/y).

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

 

Durable Goods NAICS Classification Aug Jul Jun Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
New Orders -13.2 3.3 1.6 -6.7 9.8 27.1 -30.0
  Transportation -34.9 13.1 10.8 -19.6 12.8 57.4 -42.0
Total Excluding Transportation -1.6 -1.3 -2.2 -1.1 8.6 18.0 -25.4
  Nondefense Capital Goods -24.3 4.8 2.4 -21.5 13.2 36.3 -36.9
    Excluding Aircraft 1.1 -5.2 -2.7 -3.1 10.3 17.1 -24.5
Shipments -3.0 1.9 -0.0 4.4 9.6 11.4 -21.0
Inventories 0.6 0.8 0.3 5.2 10.3 9.5 -10.2
Unfilled Orders -1.7 0.7 0.4 5.4 10.3 9.6 -19.5
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