Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca September 26, 2012
French household confidence edged lower in Sept to 85 from 86. At that level it is in the bottom 11% of all values back to Sept 1991. It’s a weak showing but not one that is continuing weaken that rapidly…still it is continuing to weaken and at this low level that is disturbing enough.
Living standards over the past 12 months are assessed to have been among the bottom 3% weakest That France has seen. Over the next 12-monhts standards are expected to be slightly worse, in the bottom 3.2 percentile.
Expected unemployment is in the top four percentile of its ordered queue of observations over the past 22 years. That is simply another measure of how weak things are and how concerned people have become
Prices are above the midpoint of their range with expected inflation in the top 13 percentile of its range 22-year. Oddly, the environment for savings is rated positively.
France is just another example of how the troubles in the Zone are migrating from the periphery to the core members. Just today the Bank of Spain has begun to announce that the economy is continuing to contract rapidly in the current quarter. As the fourth largest Zone economy this is going to weigh on the performance of the Zone and will have further knock-on effects for the other large Zone economies, like France.
INSEE Household Opinion Survey | Sep-12 | Aug-12 | Jul-12 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Percentile* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Household Indicator | 85 | 86 | 87 | 86 | 88 | 86 | 11.1% |
Living Standards | |||||||
Past 12-Mo | -77 | -73 | -70 | -73 | -70 | -71 | 3.6% |
Next 12-Mo | -56 | -51 | -45 | -51 | -42 | -47 | 3.2% |
Unemployment Next 12-Mo | 73 | 69 | 67 | 70 | 62 | 58 | 96.8% |
Prices | |||||||
Past 12-Mo | 5 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 62.8% |
Next 12-Mo (Apr) | -13 | -21 | -28 | -25 | -29 | -22 | 87.3% |
Savings | |||||||
Favorable to Save | 30 | 27 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 21 | 88.9% |
Ability to Save 12 Mos | -5 | -5 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -6 | 83.4% |
*Over ranked queue | Sep-91 |