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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 25, 2012
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September jumped 14.7% to 70.3 from 61.3 in August, revised up from 60.6. Consensus had been looking for a m/m decline to 63.0. The latest figure was the highest since February. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real PCE.
The expectations component jumped 17.7% to 83.7 which was its highest level since February. A greater 18.2% of respondents thought business conditions would be better in six months. Also, an increased 18.5% thought there would be more jobs and a higher 16.3% expected higher income.
Consumers' reading of the present situation jumped 8.0% m/m to 50.2, its highest level since April. Confidence in the labor market improved greatly as a lessened 38.9% reported that jobs were hard to get, the least since April. An improved 15.5% thought business conditions were good, the most since December.
Expectations for inflation in the next twelve months fell m/m to 5.8% but remained up from the 5.3% low three months ago. The percentage of people looking for higher stock prices ticked up to 27.9% this month while the percent who are bearish fell to it least since May. The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home within six months reversed most of its August gain and the percent planning to buy a major appliance rose to its highest since November.
Headline figures on consumer confidence are carried in Haver's USECON database. The Conference Board's detailed data are found in Haver's CBDB database, and the consensus expectations figure is from Actions Economics, as tabulated in the AS1REPNA database.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 70.3 | 61.3 | 65.4 | 51.5 | 58.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 |
Present Situation | 50.2 | 46.5 | 45.9 | 50.8 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 |
Expectations | 83.7 | 71.1 | 78.4 | 51.9 | 72.8 | 73.7 | 59.3 |