Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2012
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for August rose to 74.3 from an unrevised 72.3 in July. The figure also was up from the mid-August reading of 73.6. The latest number beat expectations for 73.8. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. A rebound in the Current Conditions index to 88.7 from 82.7 accounted for the August rise in Consumer Sentiment. The Consumer Expectations component slipped m/m to 65.1, still its lowest since December.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis is the title of today's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available here.
University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) |
Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 74.3 | 72.3 | 73.2 | 55.8 | 67.3 | 71.8 | 66.3 |
Current Economic Conditions | 88.7 | 82.7 | 81.5 | 68.5 | 79.1 | 80.9 | 69.6 |
Consumer Expectations | 65.1 | 65.6 | 67.8 | 47.6 | 59.8 | 66.0 | 64.1 |