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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows During FY'12
by Tom Moeller  August 10, 2012

During July, the Federal Government ran a budget deficit of $69.6B, according to figures released by the U.S. Treasury. So far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $973.84B, down from $1,100.0B during the first ten months of FY'11. As a percent of GDP, the deficit is running close to 6.0%, below last year's of 8.6%. For FY'12, recently released OMB projections call for a deficit of $1,211B then $991B in FY'13 and $661B in FY'14.

For FY'12 so far, net-receipts rose 6.1% versus FY'11, about equal to the full-year FY'11 rise. Growth in individual income tax payments recently improved slightly to 4.2% y/y with the gain in payrolls. Corporate tax payments jumped 29.8% y/y with the improved economy. Social insurance taxes rose 3.8% while employment taxes rose 2.2%.

Reported outlays for this fiscal year slipped 0.4% due to a mixed spending pattern amongst the subgroups. National defense payments fell 3.2% this fiscal year-to-date versus last year while health services spending also fell 8.7%. Income security payments fell 8.5% due to lower unemployment. Working the other way, social security outlays gained 5.6% and Medicare rose 0.5%. Interest payments on the larger debt total rose 1.1% y/y. 

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

Pricey Oil, Cheap Natural Gas, and Energy Costs from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

US Government Finance July FY'12 YTD FY'11 FY'10 FY'09
Budget Balance $-69.6B $-973.84B $-1,298.6 $-1,294.2B $-1,415.7B
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 8.6 8.0 9.5
% of Total
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 6.1% 6.5 2.7 -16.6
  Individual Income Taxes 47 4.2 21.5 -1.8 -20.1
  Corporate Income Taxes 8 29.8 -5.4 38.5 -54.6
  Social Insurance Taxes 36 3.8 -5.3 -2.9 -1.0
  Excise Taxes 3 9.6 8.2 7.1 -7.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 -0.4 4.2 -1.8 18.2
  Nat'l Defense 20 -3.2 2.1 4.6 7.6
  Health 10 -8.7 1.0 10.4 19.1
  Medicare 20 0.5 7.5 5.0 10.1
  Income Security 17 -8.5 -3.3 16.7 24.9
  Social Security 20 5.6 3.4 3.5 10.7
  Veterans Benefits 4 0.9 17.3 13.6 12.7
  Interest 6 1.1 15.7 2.9 -24.6
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