Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
- Croatia: Retail Trade (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 1, 2012
The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications rose 0.2% last week (67.3% y/y). The figures are close to the high in this cycle. Applications to refinance have led the gain. Last week, they rose 0.8% w/w and have roughly doubled since last year. Conversely, home purchase applications fell 2.3% last week (-2.0% y/y). Applications for fixed interest rate loans rose 0.3% w/w and were up nearly three-quarters y/y. Variable rate loans slipped 0.6% w/w but increased 1.7% y/y.
The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages rose w/w to 3.22%, still nearly the lowest since the early-1950s and down from the 4.50% high in February of last year. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan rose to 3.90%. On a 30-year Jumbo loan, the effective rate was roughly stable w/w at 4.10%. Though it's narrowed slightly of late, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage ticked up to 2.88% and was down from its 3.93% high during February of last year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 07/27/12 | 07/20/12 | 07/13/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 945.7 | 943.6 | 935.4 | 67.3 | 572.3 | 659.3 | 736.4 |
Purchase | 182.0 | 186.2 | 192.4 | -2.0 | 182.6 | 199.8 | 263.5 |
Refinancing | 5,452.8 | 5,411.6 | 5,314.4 | 96.1 | 2,858.4 | 3,348.1 | 3,509.2 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.22 | 3.19 | 3.24 | 3.92 (7/11) |
3.97 | 4.39 | 4.85 |