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- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller August 1, 2012
Activity in the industrial sector continues to struggle. The July ISM Composite Index of industrial sector activity ticked up to 49.8 versus an unrevised 49.7 in June. The figure compared to Consensus expectations for 50.0 and remains the worst since the recession's end. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the index level and the three-month change in factory sector production.
A decline in the employment component to 52.0 from 56.6 accounted for the greatest weakness in last month's composite. During the last ten years there's been an 88% correlation between the level of the index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Most other components were little changed m/m except inventories which rose to their highest level since March. New orders and production both ticked up but remained near the recovery low. The export orders index, at 46.5, was down m/m and compared to the February high of 59.5.
The price index rose slightly to 39.5 but remained near its lowest since April 2009. Eleven percent of firms raised prices while 32 percent lowered them. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the core intermediate producer price index.
The separate index of new export orders fell sharply to 47.5, its lowest since the recession's end. The imports series was steady at 53.5.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations data are in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg | Jul | Jun | May | Jul'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 49.8 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 51.4 | 55.2 | 57.3 | 46.4 |
New Orders | 48.0 | 47.8 | 60.1 | 50.8 | 56.4 | 59.2 | 52.0 |
Production | 51.3 | 51.0 | 55.6 | 52.5 | 57.4 | 61.0 | 50.8 |
Employment | 52.0 | 56.6 | 56.9 | 55.1 | 57.4 | 57.3 | 40.7 |
Supplier Deliveries | 48.7 | 48.9 | 48.7 | 50.6 | 54.7 | 58.1 | 51.6 |
Inventories | 49.0 | 44.0 | 46.0 | 48.0 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 37.1 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 39.5 | 37.0 | 47.5 | 59.0 | 65.2 | 68.9 | 48.3 |