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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller July 31, 2012
Consumers are growing more cautious.Personal
income increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) last month following a revised 0.3%
May rise. A 0.4% June gain was expected. Wages and salaries were firm and
posted a 0.5% rise (3.5% y/y) after a little-revised 0.1% May uptick. A 0.9%
increase (-0.7% y/y) in interest earnings and a 1.4% jump (9.5% y/y) in
dividend income provided the real strength to the income rise. Disposable
income rose a firmer 0.4% (3.2% y/y) while inflation-adjusted take-home
pay increased 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.5% May rise.
Consumers took the opportunity afforded by the income gain to lift their savings by 12.1% m/m and increase the savings rate to 4.4%, the highest level in twelve months.
Personal consumption expenditures slipped marginally in June for the second consecutive month. A 0.1% rise was expected. Adjusted for prices, spending fell 0.1% (2.0% y/y). In real terms, inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods was unchanged (8.2% y/y) while real outlays on nondurables fell 0.4% (+1.5% y/y). Real services spending was flat m/m (1.2% y/y).
The PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in June after a 0.2% May decline. Durable goods prices slipped 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) while nondurables costs dipped 0.1% as well (+1.3% y/y). Services prices rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y), its strongest increase since March.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Jun | May | April | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 (Jun'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Real Disposable Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
-0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
