Recent Updates
- US: Philadelphia Fed State Coincidence Indexes (Apr)
- US: Advance Durable Goods (Apr)
- Maldives: Depository Corporations Survey (Apr)
- Mexico: GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (Mar), Trade (Apr)
- Bosnia: PPI (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 31, 2012
Consumers are growing more cautious.Personal
income increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) last month following a revised 0.3%
May rise. A 0.4% June gain was expected. Wages and salaries were firm and
posted a 0.5% rise (3.5% y/y) after a little-revised 0.1% May uptick. A 0.9%
increase (-0.7% y/y) in interest earnings and a 1.4% jump (9.5% y/y) in
dividend income provided the real strength to the income rise. Disposable
income rose a firmer 0.4% (3.2% y/y) while inflation-adjusted take-home
pay increased 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.5% May rise.
Consumers took the opportunity afforded by the income gain to lift their savings by 12.1% m/m and increase the savings rate to 4.4%, the highest level in twelve months.
Personal consumption expenditures slipped marginally in June for the second consecutive month. A 0.1% rise was expected. Adjusted for prices, spending fell 0.1% (2.0% y/y). In real terms, inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods was unchanged (8.2% y/y) while real outlays on nondurables fell 0.4% (+1.5% y/y). Real services spending was flat m/m (1.2% y/y).
The PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in June after a 0.2% May decline. Durable goods prices slipped 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) while nondurables costs dipped 0.1% as well (+1.3% y/y). Services prices rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y), its strongest increase since March.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Jun | May | April | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
Personal Saving Rate | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 (Jun'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
-0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |