Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley July 24, 2012
The purchasing managers in the Euro Area surveyed by Markit Economics continue to be cautious in their appraisal of the economy. The July flash estimate for the Composite diffusion index is 46.3819, above the June flash estimate of 46.0198 but slightly below the June final estimate of 46.3889. The small decline in the composite index from the June final to the July Flash was due to a more substantial decline in the manufacturing index offset by a rise in the services index. The July flash estimate for the manufacturing index was 43.6030, below both the June Flash estimate of 44.3613 and the June Final estimate of 44.7463. The July flash estimate for the services index was 47.6387, up from the June Flash estimate of 46.7700 and the June final estimate of 47.1318. In spite of the improvement in the service sector, all the indexes are below the 50 mark which, in the case of diffusion indexes, means that all are in a period of contraction. Moreover the indexes have been below 50 almost continuously since August 2011. The first chart shows the Flash Estimates for the Composite, Manufacturing and Service Diffusion Indexes.
The purchasing managers composite index for the Euro Area has been a relatively good indicator of the trend in the Euro Area's Gross Domestic Product and currently is suggesting a decline in real GDP in the Euro Area in the second quarter. The second chart compares the quarterly average of the purchasing managers' final estimates of the composite index with the quarter to quarter percent change in GDP. The correlation between the PMI index and the quarter to quarter change in GDP over the last thirteen years is .86
Jul '12 Flash | Jun '12 Final | Jun '12 Flash | |
---|---|---|---|
Composite | 46.3819 | 46.3889 | 46.0198 |
Manufacturing | 43.6030 | 44.7463 | 44.3613 |
Services | 47.6387 | 47.1318 | 46.7700 |