Recent Updates
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area (May)
- Sudan: Trade (Mar)
- South Africa: Leading Indicators (Mar)
- Hungary: Employment of Fostered Workers (Mar)
- Denmark: Central Government Finance (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley July 23, 2012
May data for world trade and production were released
today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analyses.
(The data are found in the G10 Haver Data Base.) The CPB is part of
the Netherland Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation,
but it functions as an independent research unit that provides
economic policy analyses. It provides the most up to date trade
data, well before the OECD, the IMF and the WTO who also publish world
trade data. The CPB also publishes production data covering the same
countries that are in the trade data.
World trade recovered rapidly from its decline in the global crisis. The year to year increase reached 20.80% in May 2010. Since then the year to year growth has trended downward and now appears to have settled at roughly 3% growth. This compares with an average growth rate of 6.16% over the period, January 1991 to date, during which the data are available. The monthly data for April and May were slight increases--2.90% and 3.03%, suggesting that the second quarter volume of trade could show an increase over the first quarter.
The recovery in world production from the global crisis was more subdued than that in trade, but it followed the same general pattern. After good recovery in 2009 and early 2010, year to year growth began to taper off and appears to have averaged about 4% growth in recent months, somewhat above the long term average growth rate of 3.34%. Contrary to the path of growth in trade, growth in production declined from 4.24% in April to 3.72% in May and it looks as if the second quarter might come in below the first. The year to year growth rates in world trade and production are shown in the first chart.
May '12 | Apr '12 | Mar '12 | Feb '12 | Jan '12 | Q1 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
World Trade (Y/Y % Change) | 3.03 | 2.90 | 2.25 | 2.90 | 1.93 | 2.36 |
World Production (Y/Y % Change) | 3.72 | 4.25 | 4.64 | 3.77 | 3.49 | 3.97 |
World Trade (2000=100) | 170.43 | 166.30 | 167.68 | 167.61 | 167.22 | 167.50 |
World Production (2000=100) | 146.41 | 145.69 | 146.70 | 146.38 | 145.54 | 146.21 |