Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
- South Africa: PPI (Apr) Government Debt (Apr-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 23, 2012
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve
improved to -0.15 from a revised -0.48 in May, reported as -0.45 last
month. The three-month moving rose to -0.20 but remained near its
lowest reading since June of last year. During the last ten years
there has been an 81% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the
q/q change in real GDP.
Month-to-month improvement occurred primarily in the Production & Income series. Personal Consumption & Housing also improved but Employment, Unemployment & Hours deteriorated along with Sales, Orders & Inventories. The Chicago Fed reported that in June, 40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index while 45 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Central Bank Cooperation in Times of Crisis is Friday's speech by Fed Governor Elizabeth A. Duke and it is available here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.15 | -0.48 | 0.04 | -0.32 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -1.62 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.20 | -0.38 | -0.16 | -0.48 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.23 | -0.26 | -0.26 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.35 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.12 | -0.05 | 0.12 | 0.03 | -0.82 |
| Production & Income | 0.13 | -0.27 | 0.34 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.08 | -0.16 |
