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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 19, 2012
It's been hard to find a solid indication of the economy's future, and one of the better series has been waffling. The Leading Economic Indicator index from the Conference Board fell 0.3% last month following a 0.4% May rise, initially reported as 0.3%. It was the second decline in three months. A 0.1% dip had been expected. Component declines in the series were led by a lower ISM orders index, diminished consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, fewer building permits and lower stock prices. A greatly-diminished 40% of the component series rose last month, the least since September. A steeper interest rate yield curve provided the largest positive influence.
The index of coincident indicators increased 0.2% for a second month as each of the four component series rose, most notably manufacturing and trade sales.The index of lagging indicators rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y).
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses. The figure was steady m/m and sharply below its high of January last year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 |
Coincident | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -7.7 |
Lagging | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | -2.9 | -1.0 |