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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Is Disappointing
by Tom Moeller  July 13, 2012

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-July fell to 72.0 compared to 73.2 in June. The latest figure was the lowest since December and compared unfavorably to expectations for 73.5. A lower consumer expectations reading pulled the total down with a decline to 64.8, also its lowest since December. The current conditions index reversed some of the prior month's decline with a rise to 83.2. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan
(Q1'66 = 100)		 Mid-Jul Jun May Jul'11 2011 2010 2009
Consumer Sentiment 72.0 73.2 79.3 63.7 67.3 71.8 66.3
 Current Economic Conditions 83.2 81.5 87.2 75.7 79.1 80.9 69.6
 Consumer Expectations 64.8 67.8 74.3 55.9 59.8 66.0 64.1
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