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Economy in Brief

U.S. Import Price Decline Intensifies
by Tom Moeller  July 12, 2012

The decline in import prices picked up speed last month.U.S. import prices fell 2.7% during June after a 1.2% May decline. A 1.5% decline had been expected. Prices fell across-the-board. Petroleum prices were off 10.5% last month (-10.7% y/y) after a 4.7% decline during May. Brent crude oil fell to an average $96.89 per barrel from May's $111.67 but rose yesterday to $98.99. Non-oil import prices declined 0.3% (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.2% slip during May. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last twenty years has a 59% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.

Imported food & beverage prices declined 1.0% last month (-1.9% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies also fell 1.0% (-4.0% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods slipped 0.1% (+1.7% y/y). Furniture prices rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) but home entertainment equipment prices fell 0.7% (-5.2% y/y). Imported auto prices slipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) and imported capital goods prices were off 0.2% (+0.5% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices were unchanged (-2.3% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices slipped 0.2% (+1.8% y/y).

U.S. export prices fell 1.7% (-2.1% y/y) as agricultural commodities prices slumped 4.0% (-6.1% y/y). Nonagricultural goods posted a 1.4% decline (-1.6% y/y), the second consecutive down month. Prices of industrial supplies led the decline with a 3.9% drop (-6.9% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage prices also were quite weak and dropped 3.5% (-2.6% y/y). Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (0.5% y/y). Prices for exported autos & parts slipped 0.1% (+2.4% y/y).

The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The daily figure are in DAILY. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

 

Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Imports - All Commodities -2.7 -1.2 -0.1 -2.6 10.9 6.9 -11.5
  Petroleum -10.5 -4.7 -0.5 -10.7 36.5 28.4 -35.9
  Nonpetroleum -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 4.5 2.8 -4.1
Exports - All Commodities -1.7 -0.4 0.4 -2.1 8.1 4.9 -4.6
  Agricultural -4.0 0.7 2.0 -6.1 22.3 7.9 -12.8
  Nonagricultural -1.4 -0.6 0.2 -1.6 6.6 4.6 -3.7
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