Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
- Croatia: Retail Trade (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2012
The labor market advanced into new territory last week. Initial
claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 350,000 in the week ended
July 7 from 376,000 during the prior week, revised from 374,000. That put
the latest level at its lowest since March 2008. Consensus expectations
were for 375,000 new claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell
to 376,500, its lowest since late May.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also fell w/w to 3.304M during the week of June 30. The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.6% where it's been since March. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of June 23, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients ticked up to 5.874M, down -21.5% y/y and down 50% from the peak in January 2010.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus survey estimates are in AS1REPNA.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/07/12 | 06/30/12 | 06/23/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 350 | 376 | 388 | -14.6 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,304 | 3,318 | -11.6 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 (7/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 5.874M | -21.5 | 7.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |