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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 3, 2012
The start of the Summer driving season hasn't yet helped the price of gasoline. The pump price of regular gasoline declined eight cents to $3.38 per gallon last week. Since early April prices have fallen fifty eight cents (-14.8%). Haver Analytics' seasonally-adjusted price for regular fell five cents to $3.09 per gallon. This seasonally adjusted price is lower than the actual because gas prices typically rise with the summer driving season.
The price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil fell $1.12 last week to $80.29. Yesterday, the cost of crude rose to $83.75 per barrel. Prices peaked at $113.93 in April, 2011. Brent crude ticked up last week to $92.22 per barrel and rose further to $96.41 yesterday.
Reduced driving and improved fuel economy lowered the demand for gasoline by 4.8% y/y last week. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, was off 42.8% y/y while distillate demand was roughly unchanged y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products ticked up 0.4% year-to-year. That comparison was improved versus the 5.0%y/y decline this past fall.
Natural gas prices improved to $2.76 per mmbtu last week but were down 36.1% y/y. Yesterday, prices held steady w/w but still were off from the early-January 2010 peak of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Weekly Price | 07/02/12 | 06/25/12 | 06/18/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.36 | 3.44 | 3.53 | -6.2 | 3.52 | 2.78 | 2.35 |
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 80.29 | 81.41 | 83.32 | -14.3 | 95.14 | 79.51 | 61.39 |
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 2.76 | 2.54 | 2.24 | -36.1 | 3.99 | 4.40 | 3.95 |