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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Claims Decline
by Tom Moeller  June 28, 2012

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 386,000 last week from 392,000, revised from 387,000. Consensus expectations were for 385,000 new claims. The four-week moving average of claims slipped to 386,750 but remained nearly the highest since early-December.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also slipped w/w to 3.296M during the week of June 16. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.6% where it's been since March. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of June 9, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients ticked up to 5.890M, down -21.7% y/y and down 50% from the peak in January 2010.

By state the insured unemployment rate varied greatly with Virginia (1.39%), Nebraska (1.41%), Texas (1.64%), Ohio (1.74%), Indiana (1.84%), Florida (1.91%), and Georgia (2.07%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Nevada (2.94%), Illinois (3.09%), Connecticut (3.19%), New Jersey (3.26%), California (3.39%), Pennsylvania (3.63%) and Alaska (4.18%).

Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus survey estimates are in AS1REPNA.

Technology Shocks and Unemployment in the Last Recession from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/23/12 06/16/12 06/09/12 Y/Y% 2011 2010 2009
Initial Claims 386 392 389 -9.2 409 459 574
Continuing Claims -- 3,296 3,311 -11.5 3,745 4,544 5,807
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 2.6 2.6 3.0
3.0 3.6 4.4
Total "All Programs" (NSA) -- -- 5.890M -21.7 7.750M 9.850M 9.163M
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