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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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State Labor Markets in April 2022
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Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2012
New orders for durable goods rebounded 1.1% in May following a 0.2% dip in April (last month reported as unchanged). The Consensus forecast was for a 0.5% rise. Despite May's gain, the y/y increase continued to decelerate to 4.6% versus a 9.8% rise last year. Much of the slowing has been due to a 4.5% y/y decline in nondefense aircraft & parts orders. Orders for motor vehicles were a still strong 17.1%. Less the transportation sector, durable goods orders ticked up 0.4% last month. The y/y gain slowed to 3.8% from its 8.6% rise last year and an 18.0% 2010 increase.
In other industry categories, machinery orders rose 4.1% (-3.6% y/y) but primary metals bookings fell 1.5% (+12.9% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.9% (+4.5% y/y) while electrical equipment, appliance & components orders rose 1.1% (1.9% y/y). Except for computers, these y/y gains are well off from last year.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.7% (8.7% y/y) for the second straight month. Unfilled orders for durable goods were roughly unchanged (8.3% y/y) for the third straight month. Inventories rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.1 | -0.2 | -3.7 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 1.3 | -0.8 | -12.2 | 5.1 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.6 | -1.4 | -2.3 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
Shipments | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
Inventories | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |