Recent Updates
- UK: Average Precipitation, Motor Vehicle Production (Apr)
- Serbia: Bank Claims, Banking Survey (Apr)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (May-Press)
- Spain: Credit Institutions Balance Sheet (Mar)
- Hungary: Labor Force (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller June 21, 2012
The Leading Economic Indicator index from the Conference Board rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.1% slip during April. A 0.1% increase had been expected. An improved 70% of the component series rose last month. That remained up versus last September when just 25% gained. Higher building permits and a steeper interest yield curve had the most meaningful positive effects on the overall leading index last month. These were followed by a higher ISM orders series, higher capital goods orders and lower claims for jobless insurance. The separate Leading Credit Index slipped to its lowest level this year and indicated tighter conditions versus the easy state of last summer and fall.
The index of coincident indicators rose 0.2% for a second month as higher manufacturing & trade sales led the gain with improved personal income and higher employment. Industrial output fell for the second month in the last three.
The index of lagging indicators rose 0.3% due mostly to higher C&I loans outstanding.
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses and it's been falling since January of last year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 |
Coincident | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -7.7 |
Lagging | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | -2.9 | -1.0 |