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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 18, 2012
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo reported that its
Composite Housing Market Index rose this month to 29 from a revised 28 in
May, initially reported as 29. The latest figure was the highest since
2007. The index of single-family home sales rose two points to 32, also
the highest since 2007 but still down from levels near 70 in 2004. The
index of sales during the next six months held constant at 34. Finally,
the home builders' index of traffic of prospective buyers remained at its
high of 23. By region, the Midwest index returned to its high of 31 while
the index for the West recovered slightly following three months of
decline. The index for the South retraced half of its May gain and the
Northeast's index also fell slightly.
The index of prospective new home buyer traffic held at its recent high of 23. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted. The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, improved slightly in Q1'12 to a record 77.5%, buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
Economic Rebounds in U.S. and Euro Zone: Deceivingly Similar, Strikingly Different from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
National Association of Home Builders | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 29 | 28 | 24 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Single-Family Sales | 32 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 34 | 34 | 31 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 23 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
Northeast | 29 | 31 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
Midwest | 31 | 26 | 22 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
South | 26 | 28 | 23 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
West | 33 | 29 | 31 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 12 |