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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2012
Consumer prices fell 0.3% last month versus an expected 0.2% decline. The figure pulled the y/y increase to 1.7%, down from its peak of 3.9% last September. Prices less food and energy increased a steady and expected 0.2%, for the third straight month. The y/y gain held at 2.3%, its highest since September 2008.
Energy prices fell 4.3% (-3.9% y/y) as gasoline prices were off 6.8% (-4.0% y/y). Fuel oil costs fell a not seasonally adjusted 2.8% (-1.1% y/y) while gas & electricity prices fell 0.7% (-3.6% y/y). Food prices were unchanged (2.8% y/y) as meat costs fell 0.3% (+2.8% y/y). Elsewhere, cereals & bakery products costs slipped 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) but fruits & vegetable prices increased 0.4% (-0.4% y/y.
For goods alone, prices less food & energy rose 0.2% for the fourth month in the last five. However, the 12-month increase fell to 1.6%. Apparel prices again rose 0.4% and the 4.4% y/y gain compared to a 0.5% decline in 2010. Furniture & bedding costs rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) while appliance costs fell 0.6% (+3.0% y/y) for the second straight month. New motor vehicle prices increased 0.2% and by a much-lessened 1.3% y/y.
The 0.2% increase in core service prices (2.5% y/y) reflected a stable 0.2% rise (2.3% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences ticked up 0.1% (2.1% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose an increased 0.4% (4.2% y/y) as medical care service prices rose a quickened 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Public transportation prices rose a firm 0.8% (2.4% y/y) while recreation services prices gained 0.2% (2.6% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Price Index (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
Food | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Energy | -4.3 | -1.7 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |