Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca June 13, 2012
EMU IP fell by 1.7% in April after rising by 1.1% in March. Over three months all the major IP categories show
negative growth rates. Of the eight EU/EMU nations in the table six show decline in IP over three-months.
Over six months all IP categories are declining. Over six months six of eight of the countries in the table are showing declines in their respective IP.
Over 12-months five of six major IP categories across EMU are declining in EMU. Only capital goods output is up by 0.2% over 12-months. Again six of eight of the countries in the table show their respective IP indices falling over 12-months. The trends are all one way and are pretty clear cut
The speed of the IP decline is at 2.9% over 12 months and at 4.1% over both three-month a six-month horizons. France is showing IP increases over all horizons and acceleration in the rate of expansion over all. Ireland is show increases in IP over several horizons.
In the recent quarter (one month into Q2) the level of IP in April is advancing over the Q1 level in five of eight countries in the table but in overall EMU all categories are showing declines. The rate of decline for EMU as a whole in the nascent quarter is quite sharp. But there are several countries Ireland, Greece and France, in particular, with contrary sharp rebounds in IP under way early in Q2.
Overall, the troubles in the Zone are clear and well in train. Growth is withering. The recent un-bailout of Spanish banks has not really taken hold. The entire Zone is walking on eggshells waiting for the Greek election results this weekend. It is a still touch and go situation in Europe.
Euro-Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAAR Except M/M | Mo/Mo | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
|||
Euro-Area Detail | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Jan 12 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q2D |
MFG | 0.9% | -0.4% | -0.1% | 1.6% | -4.0% | -1.2% | -7.7% | -1.3% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
Consumer | 0.7% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -6.3% | -8.4% | -4.7% | -9.1% | -3.8% | -4.5% | -7.7% |
C-Durables | -0.2% | -1.7% | 0.2% | -6.8% | -6.3% | -5.8% | -12.8% | -6.0% | -6.2% | -- |
C-Non-durables | 0.8% | -1.3% | -0.8% | -5.2% | -8.1% | -4.6% | -8.6% | -3.4% | -4.0% | -- |
Intermediate | 1.0% | -1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | -6.2% | -2.9% | -8.6% | -2.8% | -3.9% | -2.1% |
Capital | 1.1% | 1.4% | -0.4% | 8.8% | -0.1% | 3.8% | -5.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
Mo/Mo | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
||||
MFG Only | Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
Jan 12 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | Q2D |
Germany: | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 11.5% | -2.8% | 2.1% | -5.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
France: IPx Construct'n | -0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.9% | -1.3% | -0.2% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
Italy | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.5% | -10.9% | -8.1% | -4.3% | -13.2% | -5.4% | -6.3% | -8.0% |
Spain | -2.5% | -3.9% | 2.6% | -14.7% | -1.0% | -10.1% | -8.1% | -9.2% | -7.1% | -1.7% |
Ireland | -2.7% | -3.2% | 0.7% | -19.0% | -1.1% | -15.0% | -20.5% | -5.8% | -3.1% | -18.9% |
Greece | -1.7% | -2.7% | 4.2% | -1.6% | -4.2% | -13.5% | -9.3% | -8.8% | -8.3% | 5.4% |
Portugal | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 12.2% | -3.2% | -4.0% | -17.5% | -5.8% | -7.2% | -2.4% |
UK: EU member | 0.8% | -1.0% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 0.0% |
Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality |