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Economy in Brief

Euro-Area Sectors on Same Downtrend
by Robert Brusca  June 13, 2012

EMU IP fell by 1.7% in April after rising by 1.1% in March. Over three months all the major IP categories show negative growth rates. Of the eight EU/EMU nations in the table six show decline in IP over three-months.

Over six months all IP categories are declining. Over six months six of eight of the countries in the table are showing declines in their respective IP.

Over 12-months five of six major IP categories across EMU are declining in EMU. Only capital goods output is up by 0.2% over 12-months. Again six of eight of the countries in the table show their respective IP indices falling over 12-months. The trends are all one way and are pretty clear cut

The speed of the IP decline is at 2.9% over 12 months and at 4.1% over both three-month a six-month horizons. France is showing IP increases over all horizons and acceleration in the rate of expansion over all. Ireland is show increases in IP over several horizons.

In the recent quarter (one month into Q2) the level of IP in April is advancing over the Q1 level in five of eight countries in the table but in overall EMU all categories are showing declines. The rate of decline for EMU as a whole in the nascent quarter is quite sharp. But there are several countries Ireland, Greece and France, in particular, with contrary sharp rebounds in IP under way early in Q2.

Overall, the troubles in the Zone are clear and well in train. Growth is withering. The recent un-bailout of Spanish banks has not really taken hold. The entire Zone is walking on eggshells waiting for the Greek election results this weekend. It is a still touch and go situation in Europe.

Euro-Area MFG IP
SAAR Except M/M Mo/Mo Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Mar
12		 Feb
12		  
Euro-Area Detail Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Jan
12		 3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo Q2D
MFG 0.9% -0.4% -0.1% 1.6% -4.0% -1.2% -7.7% -1.3% -2.0% -2.3%
Consumer 0.7% -1.5% -0.8% -6.3% -8.4% -4.7% -9.1% -3.8% -4.5% -7.7%
C-Durables -0.2% -1.7% 0.2% -6.8% -6.3% -5.8% -12.8% -6.0% -6.2% --
C-Non-durables 0.8% -1.3% -0.8% -5.2% -8.1% -4.6% -8.6% -3.4% -4.0% --
Intermediate 1.0% -1.4% 0.7% 1.1% -6.2% -2.9% -8.6% -2.8% -3.9% -2.1%
Capital 1.1% 1.4% -0.4% 8.8% -0.1% 3.8% -5.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.7%
Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Mar
12		 Feb
12		  
MFG Only Mar
12		 Feb
12		 Jan
12		 3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo Q2D
Germany: 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 11.5% -2.8% 2.1% -5.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9%
France: IPx Construct'n -0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% -1.3% -0.2% -2.7% -0.9% -1.4% -0.4%
Italy 0.6% -0.9% -2.5% -10.9% -8.1% -4.3% -13.2% -5.4% -6.3% -8.0%
Spain -2.5% -3.9% 2.6% -14.7% -1.0% -10.1% -8.1% -9.2% -7.1% -1.7%
Ireland -2.7% -3.2% 0.7% -19.0% -1.1% -15.0% -20.5% -5.8% -3.1% -18.9%
Greece -1.7% -2.7% 4.2% -1.6% -4.2% -13.5% -9.3% -8.8% -8.3% 5.4%
Portugal 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 12.2% -3.2% -4.0% -17.5% -5.8% -7.2% -2.4%
UK: EU member 0.8% -1.0% -0.3% -2.1% -0.8% -0.8% -2.5% -0.9% -1.5% 0.0%
Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality
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