Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
- Malaysia: House Price Index by State (Q1)
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- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca June 6, 2012
The picture for German industrial production is now so clear and so obvious the only uncertainty is about the
future pace and how long this ramp-down will continue. Output of consumer goods is unraveling at an unnerving pace
despite the fact that in Germany itself the consumer sector and unemployment rate have been quite buffered from the
troubles in the rest of the Zone. Capital goods output started to step up its negative pace over six months and
it’s a bit worse over three months. Only intermediate goods, a sector that is a tag-along sector is not showing a
worsening of growth from 12- to 6- to 3-months.
In the unfolding quarter (one month in, these calculations look at production in April relative to the Q1 average and annualize the growth rate) consumer goods output is under an accelerated decline as is capital goods output. Intermediate goods output is declining but on a mild gradient compared to the other sectors.
Industrial output is not seeing its fall accelerate over three months compared to six months but the pace is not much different on those to horizons and near a -4% pace.. In the unfolding quarter the drop in IP is (mostly) severe based on the large drop in April.
The orders trend actually had an upturn to it and we will want to watch that to see if it endures or if it is an artifact of volatility. Real industrial orders did fall by 1.9% in April. But their previous rise in March left the level in April above the average for Q1 as a result real orders actually are expanding at the start of Q2, too, compared to Q3 despite an April fall.
We also have Spain’s and Portugal’s IP data for April and both show MFG output is off. It is becoming laborious to report how badly the Euro-Area is doing.
I am surprised that Draghi’s comments that were so vague and that broke no new ground were cited as a reason for stock markets to improve. Europe is in such a fix and the various strands of problems are becoming so intertwined it seems increasing less likely that Europe can extract itself without a real crisis rearing up. Delay is not a strategy. As policymakers delay the real economy gets woes as we can see from the IP trends. Germany was once resistant to declines in IP now it is a charter member of the club.
Total German IPr | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAAR Except M/M | Apr 12 |
Mar 12 |
Feb 12 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Q-2-Date |
IP total | -2.2% | 2.2% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -3.3% | -0.7% | -5.6% |
Consumer | -3.7% | 2.2% | -1.2% | -10.6% | -8.2% | -6.1% | -15.1% |
Capital | -3.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | -4.3% | -3.8% | 1.3% | -13.0% |
Intermed | -0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -1.4% | -3.2% | -1.3% | -2.1% |
Memo | |||||||
Construction | -6.0% | 26.0% | -16.3% | -3.8% | -0.2% | -0.8% | 17.9% |
MFG IP | -2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | -3.8% | -4.0% | -0.9% | -8.6% |
Real MFG Orders | -1.9% | 3.2% | 0.0 | 7.6% | -3.2% | -3.7% | 2.4% |