Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca June 1, 2012
The table above focuses on changes in the PMI indices for a number of key EMU and EU members. In May only Italy,
Greece and Ireland did not register drops in their respective MFG PMI gauges. Over three months the EMU MFG PMI
is lower by 3.83 points; only Greece and Ireland are higher over three months.
Over the past year Germany and France are off the most with indices that have fallen by 12.54 and 10.28 points, respectively. This is a pretty clear way to make the point that the rest of Europe is dragging the core down. Of course, much of the rest of EMU is already much weaker than these countries but the weakness is spreading to the core the strength from the core is not spreading to the periphery.
We can also look at performance relative to this cycle’s peaks and troughs. Germany, Spain and Italy have fallen the most from their respective cycle peaks. Ireland has fallen the least dropping by only 5.5 points from its cycle peak.
Ireland and Austria are up the most from their respective cycle troughs, followed by Spain, Germany and the Netherlands. Greece’s three month gain of 5.4 points coincides with its rise from its trough. So while Greece MFG is rising over two-months it is rising from its worst reading of the cycle.
Positioned in their historic queue of values we find Ireland as the strongest in the 48th percentile of its historic queue of PMI values followed by Austria in its 29th percentile and The Netherlands in the 19th percentile. The remaining EMU members are all at or below their respective 11th percentiles. The UK, an EU member, is relatively well-off in the 44th percentile of this queue.
Only Ireland and Austria have raw PMI gauges that are in the 50th percentile or higher. Spain with a reading of 41 is the weakest raw observation followed by Greece at 43.
These readings clearly show a region in distress. The steady fall off for Germany and France shows that the core countries of EMU are gradually being ground down by the crisis. There is little in the way of hope in these data except to note that Austria and Ireland are finding their way. But Ireland has been working its way out from under a pile of debt.
This is a situation that has grown to feed on itself. Germany has not used its size and economic strength to serve as an engine of growth. Instead it has played defense and that has resulted in it being dragged into the slowdown. At some point Europe would seem to need a common game plan instead of 17 separate plans. If Europe really wants to be a common Zone why not act like one?
Changes in Markit MFG Indices | %ile | PMI | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Changes Mo/Mo | Change on Freq | On Lvl | Level | |||||||
May 12 |
Apr 12 |
Mar 12 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Frm Peak |
Frm Low |
%of Q | May 12 |
|
Euro-13 | -0.76 | -1.83 | -1.24 | -3.83 | -1.24 | -9.51 | -13.9 | 11.6 | 9.1% | 45.13 |
Germany | -1.02 | -2.15 | -1.86 | -5.03 | -2.70 | -12.54 | -17.5 | 13.2 | 10.5% | 45.19 |
France | -2.18 | 0.13 | -3.24 | -5.29 | -2.66 | -10.28 | -13.3 | 9.9 | 8.4% | 44.67 |
Italy | 0.97 | -4.00 | 0.02 | -3.01 | 0.78 | -8.02 | -14.2 | 10.2 | 11.9% | 44.82 |
Spain | -1.49 | -1.03 | -0.45 | -2.97 | -1.78 | -6.21 | -15.2 | 13.5 | 7.7% | 41.99 |
Austria | -0.99 | -0.24 | -0.49 | -1.72 | 2.67 | -5.37 | -11.7 | 17.1 | 29.4% | 50.24 |
Greece | 2.35 | -0.61 | 3.65 | 5.39 | 2.15 | -1.45 | -12.2 | 5.4 | 14.0% | 43.06 |
Ireland | 1.09 | -1.37 | 1.74 | 1.46 | 2.64 | -0.64 | -5.5 | 18.0 | 48.3% | 51.18 |
Netherlands | -1.35 | -0.61 | -0.75 | -2.71 | 1.57 | -7.47 | -13.1 | 12.2 | 19.6% | 47.62 |
EU | ||||||||||
UK | -4.37 | -1.51 | 0.39 | -5.49 | -2.26 | -6.42 | -13.6 | 11.1 | 44.8% | 45.87 |
percentile is over range since March 2000 |