Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
- Croatia: Retail Trade (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone June 1, 2012
Personal income increased 0.2% (2.8% y/y) in April after 0.4%
March, which was unrevised from the initial report last month and modestly
weaker than consensus expectations for 0.3%. The April rise included a 0.2%
rise (3.2% y/y) in wages and salaries, a second month of slowing after
some improvement in the winter. Wages and salaries were also revised
somewhat beginning in Q4 2011, due to a regular quarterly updating of the
Labor Department source data. Among other income categories, rental income
surged 1.0% (14.2% y/y), a tenth consecutive monthly gain of 1% or more.
Proprietors' income increased 0.4% (3.1% y/y). Low interest rates
meant that interest income was flat in April, following three months of
0.6% increases; the year-on-year movement was down 1.8%. In contrast, dividend
income remained strong, rising 1.0% in April and 6.5% from a year ago.
Personal consumption expenditures picked up to a 0.3% increase in April from an upward revised 0.2% rise in March, which was originally reported at 0.1%; April's year/year gain was 4.0%. The April number was in line with consensus forecasts. Durable goods purchases rose 0.6%, resuming growth after a 1.4% decrease in March. The swing was led by a renewed increase in motor vehicles; other major durables, including home furnishings and recreational goods, declined or slowed in April from March. Spending on nondurable goods fell 0.2% in April after rising 0.9% in March; this swing owed mainly to declining gasoline prices and a lower volume of clothing purchases. Outlays for services increased 0.4% (+3.6% y/y) following 0.3% in April; expenditures on housing had an upswing of 0.9% after their 0.2% decrease in March, while recreational services weakened. Food services (i.e., mostly restaurant meals) and accommodations inched up 0.1% in April, but they had surged 1.1% in March.
The PCE chain price index was flat in April after a 0.2% increase in March; it is up 1.8% from a year ago. The April flattening came mainly from a decline in energy goods and services of 1.8%; those prices are now down 0.4% from a year earlier. The core PCE price index was also a bit slower in April, with a 0.1% increase following March's 0.2%; it is 1.9% above a year ago. The flat price index means that the real value of PCE in April also rose, as did the nominal, by 0.3%, picking up from a flat performance in March, revised from 0.1% reported before.
The personal saving rate was 3.4% in April, down from March's 3.5%, revised down from 3.8% reported last month, reflecting the upward revision to March spending. A year ago, the saving rate was 4.8%.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays(%) | April | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 | -4.3 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | -4.3 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -2.1 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | -1.7 |
Personal Saving Rate | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 (Apr.'11) |
4.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -2.3 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -1.9 |