Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 29, 2012
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence during May fell for the fourth month in the last five. The 5.5% decline to 64.9 was from 68.7 last month, initially reported as 69.2. Nevertheless, the index remained up by more-than half from the October low. The May number was well below Consensus estimates for 70.0. During the last ten years there was been a 48% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real PCE.
The decline in overall confidence reflected-broad-based weakness. The present situation component fell 10.4% (+16.8% y/y) and reversed the prior two months' gains. Respondents indicating that business conditions were good fell sharply. In addition, the percentage reporting that jobs were hard to get rose to its highest (41.0%) since January.
The expectations component of confidence was down by 3.5% (+1.2% y/y), also off for the fourth month this year. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve fell to its lowest since November while the percent expecting more jobs declined to its least since December.
Expectations for inflation in the next twelve months fell m/m to 5.6% versus 6.2% in March. The percentage of people looking for stock prices to rise also dropped sharply this month to 30.8% but the percent who are bearish remained low at 31.6%. The percentage expecting higher interest rates fell to 46.4%
Headline figures on consumer confidence are carried in Haver's USECON database. The Conference Board's detailed data are found in Haver's CBDB database, and the consensus expectations figure is from Actions Economics, as tabulated in the AS1REPNA database.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 64.9 | 68.7 | 69.5 | 5.2 | 58.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 |
Present Situation | 45.9 | 51.2 | 49.9 | 16.8 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 |
Expectations | 77.6 | 80.4 | 82.5 | 1.2 | 72.8 | 73.7 | 59.3 |