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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca May 25, 2012
Germany’s economic climate held steady in June despite troubles in the surrounding Euro-Area and a controversial
change of leadership in France. Despite these distractions and risks German consumers continue to see mild
inflation and continuing growth, holding their confidence reading steady on the month
Compare the German reading to the readings for Italy, France and the UK. We show the count percentiles (also called queue percentiles) which place the recent observation in the ordered percentile queue for each metric allowing comparison of different surveys. Germany’s climate survey is in the 77% of its queue or the top 23%. Italy’s measure (that lags one month) is at its lowest reading in the period, the UK GfK survey is in the bottom 16 percentile (it lags two months) and France’s Index is near the midpoint of its range at the 50.5 percentile of its one-month lagged range
While the PMI reports issued on Thursday showed weakening across EMU and a very weak reading for Germany (bottom 9%) if its MFG PMI range) the consumer gauges show a completely different picture, at least for Germany. Europe is having difficulties but the degrees of difficulty be suffered in the various EMU member countries appear to be quite varied. Germany appears to be much more immune for the problems in the Zone than the PMI gauges suggest and it remains in a world of its own as far as consumer attitudes are concerned.
Germany Consumer Climate Survey GFK | Other EU Members | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Climate | Expectations | Propensity | Consumer/Household Confidence | ||||
Economic | Income | to Buy | Italy:ISAE | France:INSEE | UK:GFK | ||
Jun-12 | 5.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
May-12 | 5.7 | 19.6 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 86.5 | 90.0 | #N/A |
Apr-12 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 33.0 | 27.6 | 88.8 | 89.0 | -31.0 |
Mar-12 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 34.3 | 38.6 | 96.1 | 87.0 | -31.0 |
Feb-12 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 41.3 | 39.2 | 93.8 | 82.0 | -29.0 |
Levels | Current | Lagged One Month | 2Mo Lag | ||||
Average | 4.7 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 100.6 | 90.1 | -16.6 |
Max | 9.1 | 69.5 | 45.2 | 64.4 | 108.3 | 107.0 | 1.0 |
Min | 1.5 | -32.9 | -20.5 | -28.6 | 86.5 | 78.0 | -39.0 |
% range | 55.3% | 51.3% | 79.9% | 65.2% | 0.0% | 41.4% | 20.0% |
Count% | 77.7% | 62.8% | 77.7% | 75.5% | 0.0% | 50.5% | 16.1% |
% Range is current reading as a percentile of Hi/Low range | |||||||
Count % is current reading ranked as a %-tile among all readings | |||||||
GFK survey dates from January 2002 |