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Economy in Brief

German Consumers Hang in there Despite Zone Troubles
by Robert Brusca  May 25, 2012

Germany’s economic climate held steady in June despite troubles in the surrounding Euro-Area and a controversial change of leadership in France. Despite these distractions and risks German consumers continue to see mild inflation and continuing growth, holding their confidence reading steady on the month

Compare the German reading to the readings for Italy, France and the UK. We show the count percentiles (also called queue percentiles) which place the recent observation in the ordered percentile queue for each metric allowing comparison of different surveys. Germany’s climate survey is in the 77% of its queue or the top 23%. Italy’s measure (that lags one month) is at its lowest reading in the period, the UK GfK survey is in the bottom 16 percentile (it lags two months) and France’s Index is near the midpoint of its range at the 50.5 percentile of its one-month lagged range

While the PMI reports issued on Thursday showed weakening across EMU and a very weak reading for Germany (bottom 9%) if its MFG PMI range) the consumer gauges show a completely different picture, at least for Germany. Europe is having difficulties but the degrees of difficulty be suffered in the various EMU member countries appear to be quite varied. Germany appears to be much more immune for the problems in the Zone than the PMI gauges suggest and it remains in a world of its own as far as consumer attitudes are concerned.

Germany Consumer Climate Survey GFK Other EU Members
  Climate Expectations Propensity Consumer/Household Confidence
  Economic Income to Buy Italy:ISAE France:INSEE UK:GFK
Jun-12 5.7 -- -- -- -- -- --
May-12 5.7 19.6 32.0 32.0 86.5 90.0 #N/A
Apr-12 5.8 8.5 33.0 27.6 88.8 89.0 -31.0
Mar-12 6.0 7.2 34.3 38.6 96.1 87.0 -31.0
Feb-12 5.9 5.9 41.3 39.2 93.8 82.0 -29.0
Levels Current Lagged One Month   2Mo Lag
Average 4.7 12.2 8.3 12.4 100.6 90.1 -16.6
Max 9.1 69.5 45.2 64.4 108.3 107.0 1.0
Min 1.5 -32.9 -20.5 -28.6 86.5 78.0 -39.0
% range 55.3% 51.3% 79.9% 65.2% 0.0% 41.4% 20.0%
Count% 77.7% 62.8% 77.7% 75.5% 0.0% 50.5% 16.1%
% Range is current reading as a percentile of Hi/Low range      
Count % is current reading ranked as a %-tile among all readings      
GFK survey dates from January 2002      
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