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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone May 25, 2012
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for rose further in its Final May reading to 79.3 (Q1 1966 = 100) from 77.8 in mid-month and 76.4 in April. This put it at the highest level since October 2007, before the recent recession began. Forecasters had looked for a continuation at the mid-month 77.8 level, so the actual is noticeably better both in an absolute sense and compared to expectations. Interestingly, the reading on current economic conditions, which had driven the gain in the early-month move, eased a bit in the final read, standing at 87.2, down a tick from the 87.3 before, although still up nicely from 82.9 in April. In contrast, the consumer expectations index, which had dipped to 71.7 in mid-May, rebounded to 74.3 in the final report, its highest since July 2007.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) |
May Final | Mid-May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 79.3 | 77.8 | 76.4 | 76.2 | 6.7 | 67.3 | 71.8 | 66.3 |
Current Economic Conditions | 87.2 | 87.3 | 82.9 | 86.0 | 6.5 | 79.1 | 80.9 | 69.6 |
Consumer Expectations | 74.3 | 71.7 | 72.3 | 69.8 | 6.9 | 59.8 | 66.0 | 64.1 |