Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley May 22, 2012
The effects of the earthquake and tsunami that
devastated Japan last year are still being felt. The disruptions in
production led to a decline in exports and a rise in imports.
Japan's typical trade surplus, was turned into a deficit of
2,564.7 billion yen for the year as a whole, compared with a surplus in
the previous year of 6,634.7 billion yen. The deterioration in trade
balance during 2011 can be seen in the first chart showing monthly data.
The deficits continued into the current year with a large deficit of
1481.5 billion yen in January. February saw a small surplus but a
small deficit returned in March.
Japan publishes data on the first 10 and 20 days merchandise trade balances. These data give an estimate of the trade balance for the month. They may overestimate or underestimate the final result for the month depending on the daily pattern of the trade flows. In January, February and March of this year it appears that the last 11, 9 and 11days respectively of the months came in with more surpluses than deficits as the monthly balances were smaller than the balances of the first 20 days. The first 10 and 20 days of trade balances for April are pointing to a big deficit once again. Given the experience of the first three months of the year, the deficit may be lower than the indicated 798 billion yen.
The First 10 and 20 days of trade balances are shown in the second and third charts, along with the trade balance for the month and the correlation between the two.
Apr '12 |
Mar '12 |
Feb '12 |
Jan '12 |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trade Balance | -- | -84.5 | 25.4 | -1481.4 | -2564.7 | 6634.7 | 2671.2 | 2063.3 | 10795.5 |
First 10 Days Trade Balance | -455.2 | -53.8 | 7.6 | -91.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
First 20 Days Trade Balance | -798.1 | -191.2 | -68.6 | -1560.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |