Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
- South Africa: PPI (Apr) Government Debt (Apr-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller May 8, 2012
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Optimism Index improved to 94.5 last month from an unrevised 92.5 in March. The latest level matched the economic recovery high of last February. The percentage expecting credit conditions to ease surged to its highest level of the recovery as did the percentage expecting higher earnings this quarter. Firms planning to increase capital expenditures also surged. Those planning to raise employment recovered to the highest since January while those actually raising employment rose modestly. The percentage expecting the economy to improve also gained moderately. The percentage of firms lifting prices rose to its highest level since June and the percent planning to raise prices was the highest in a year. Offsetting these gains was deterioration amongst those expecting higher real sales in six months and those reporting that inventories were too low.
The most important problems faced by small business were government requirements (a greatly increased 20%), poor sales (a greatly lessened 19%), taxes (18%), inflation (9%), insurance cost & availability (8%), competition from large businesses (7%), quality of labor (6%), cost of labor (4%) and financial & interest rates (3%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Federation of Independent Business | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 94.5 | 92.5 | 94.3 | 91.2 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 86.7 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 6 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -11 |
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -5 | -8 | -6 | -8 | -9 | -1 | -0 |
Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 17 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicant For Job Openings (Net %) | 34 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 27 | -- |
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 8 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -12 | -20 |