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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca May 7, 2012
German orders are making an attempt at stability. Orders are up for the second month in a row for the
first time since June of 2011. The one-month gain in March is a solid 2.2% rise. Foreign orders are driving
the monthly result with foreign orders rising for two months running by 1.7% in Feb and 3% in March. Domestic
orders are up by 1.3% in March after dropping by 0.8% in Feb.
Over 12-months both foreign and domestic orders are lower. Over six month foreign orders are still falling at a 0.2% annual rate while domestic orders are off at a sharper 2.9% pace. Over three months, however, both domestic and foreign orders are higher at a 3.2% pace for foreign orders and a 9.1% pace for domestic orders.
There is some attempt by each of these series to reassert stability.
Foreign orders to destination inside the Euro-Area were unchanged in March after falling by 3.3% in February. Other foreign order rose by a very strong 4.8% on top of a 4.9% increase in February. Orders for capital goods fell by about 3% in Feb and again in March from Euro-Area sources. But for other foreign orders, capital goods orders after rising 3% in February spurted by 12.8% in March. German domestic capital goods orders have waffled rising by 1.87% in Feb then falling by 1.3% in March.
Durable consumer goods orders are off by 0.2% in March and 0.7% in February in Germany’s domestic market. For Euro-Area members those orders are up by 14.9% in March after falling by 8.8% in February. That does not seem reflected in reports of consumer spending we have seen from other Euro-Area members just yet. Non EMU Foreign durables consumer goods orders rose by 5.2% in March after a drop of 0.4% in Feb.
On balance the German internal market remains weak. The Euro-Area market is also weak. But other overseas sources of demand are providing some strength.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Euro-Area output and consumption: how are patterns going to be affected in the Wake of the French and Greek elections.
German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real and SA | % M/M | % SAAR | ||||||
Mar'12 | Feb'12 | Jan'12 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | YrAgo | Q-2-D | |
Total Orders | 2.2% | 0.6% | -1.4% | 5.6% | -1.4% | -1.2% | 10.4% | -2.9% |
Foreign | 3.0% | 1.7% | -3.8% | 3.2% | -0.2% | -0.8% | 13.1% | -3.3% |
Domestic | 1.3% | -0.8% | 1.7% | 9.1% | -2.9% | -1.8% | 7.4% | -2.5% |
Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
MFG/Mining | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 9.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% | 10.8% | 1.6% |
Consumer | 1.8% | 0.2% | -1.7% | 1.2% | -1.6% | -1.3% | 2.7% | -6.7% |
Cons Durables | 0.4% | -0.9% | 3.6% | 12.9% | -3.4% | -2.9% | 11.8% | 0.1% |
Cons Non-Durable | 2.0% | 0.4% | -2.5% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -1.0% | 1.3% | -7.6% |
Captial Gds | -0.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 13.4% | 9.0% |
Intermediate Gds | 0.8% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 5.4% | -1.0% | -2.7% | 12.9% | -1.5% |
All MFG-Sales | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 9.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% |