Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Robert Brusca May 4, 2012
Euro-Area Retail sales are up by 0.3% in March and are accelerating over three months compared to six months. Motor vehicle
registrations rebounded in March after a plunge February that followed a disaster in January. Their growth rates are still
seriously impacted.
Still it's only month and it may or may not be meaningful. Germany is not leading the way, based on monthly trends and Yr/Yr it is still weak.
EMU sales Yr/Yr calculations benefit from a favorable year-ago comparisons since sales fell by 1.1% in March one year ago. The trends for retailing are not very compelling. And the background economics and politics do not do anything to give the numbers any greater authenticity. Since Germany is not leading the way up I am suspicious.
The UK alone is showing some continuing strength in real retail sales. But given the role of the 'gas shortage scare' in driving extra quarter-end purchases I'd be somewhat guarded in taking that trend as real.
On balance the Euro-Area shows very weak car registrations which get to the nub of how the consumer feels where the rubber meets the road. That big ticket series did rebound in March, but from a very deep pit, one in which it is still mired.
We may know a bit better what to say about Europe after the French elections are out of the way. But then again maybe we will not. Watershed events that we expect to clarify things often do not sweep away uncertainty as much we hope they will.
Euro-Area Retail Sales | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M/M | SAAR | |||||
Mar-12 | Feb-12 | Jan-12 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
Zone Total Volume | 0.3% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 4.5% | -2.6% | -1.9% |
Registrations | ||||||
Motor Vehicle Reg | 6.7% | -4.9% | -7.3% | -21.6% | -12.4% | -3.9% |
NonFood Country detail: Volume | ||||||
Germany Value | 0.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -2.0% | 0.3% |
UK(EU) Volume | 1.8% | -0.8% | 0.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
Data in Shaded region are lagged by one month |