Recent Updates
- Japan: Kansai Airports Statistics (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley May 1, 2012
Estimates of manufacturing activity in April by purchasing managers in the United States, Canada, Ireland and the United Kingdom were released today. The majority of those in the United States and Canada were increasingly optimistic. In the U.S., the diffusion index rose from 53.4% in March to 54.8% and, in Canada, from 52.4% to 53.3% in April both in the in the expansion phase of the cycle. (The Canadian PMI is relatively new having been introduced as recently as October, 2010.) The majority of purchasing managers in the U.K. and Ireland were also optimistic, but the majority in the U. K., slipped from 51.9% in March to 50.5% in April and, in Ireland, from 51.9% in March to 50.1% in April, both now barely in the expansion phase.
The PMIs are a good indicator of future trends in manufacturing production. The first chart shows the PMIs for manufacturing and the second manufacturing industrial production. The weakness in the PMIs from early 2011 in the first chart was greater in the United Kingdom and in Ireland than that shown in the Canadian and United States PMIs. Manufacturing production in these countries, as shown in the second chart, has recently tended to decline while that in the U. S. and Canada has tended to rise. Recent values of the PMIs for the four countries suggest that this pattern is likely to persist.
PMI | Apr'12 | Mar'12 |
---|---|---|
United States | 54.8 | 53.4 |
Canada | 53.3 | 52.4 |
United Kingdom | 50.5 | 51.9 |
Ireland | 50.1 | 51.5 |